Several things happened on the way to the SONA of the president. All of them came from an unexpected source (well, not so unexpected if you’ve been smelling the air for sometime): the US government. The first was the very public speech of ambassador Kristie Kenney where she unequivocally stated the US government’s preference for the holding of a credible 2010 elections. The second was the visit of no less than the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency to talk to President Macapagal-Arroyo. The third was the communication from the US White House that President Obama will meet President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo on July 30.

The hands-down bet, of course, is that these events are related and manifest a major US decision concerning Philippine politics and the 2010 elections. Considering that the time is fast approaching for final choices for the presidential candidate to support, this is a time for political maneuvers of all political forces to force the situation along their own preferred scenario.

Alas for nationalists, it is the current political reality that the US looms large over any scenario and is in position to encourage or discourage it. Assuming the public position of the US, this will effectively kill the martial rule scenario, the constituent assembly scenario, and the no-election scenario.

However, the intriguing consequence of the US moves is how it will effect any electoral preference it has, if any. Undoubtedly, the US government can deal with any presidentiable who wins. The question, however, is : does it have any favorite? Related to this, why talk to GMA at this particular moment?

Speculations, of course, will revolve around the actual political message from Obama’s US. The SONA represents a good opportunity to read this message.