The crisis of political survival of the Arroyo family has taken a turn for the worse as the momentum for a Resign GMA move gathers steam.
A coalition reminiscent of the coalition that torpedoed the 2006 charter change initiative is shaping into existence, with the various religious groups as core forces, middle class groups as the active element, and grassroots groups providing the muscle. It is the nascent coalition that undertook people power in the past. Now, it is the nightmare that the GMA administration feared becoming a reality.
Malacañang is scrambling for the initiative. Mobilization by friendly LGU units are being planned, sprinkled by a few pro-GMA NGOs and church personalities. A media offensive has been launched–against Lozada, JDV, the opposition, and even against Vice-President Noli de Castro. The de Castro media attack seeks to prevent a possible de Castro defection that can fundamentally undermine GMA’s chances of survival.
If it is not able to regain the initiative in the coming days, then the momentum for people power may not be denied and a GMA resignation will be the only outcome, either to preempt people power or as a consequence of one. The key institutions to watch are the Catholic church, big business, military, the Cabinet, and the ruling coalition. All these are watching closely the rise of the people’s movement and are making their decisions on an hour-by-hour basis.
The political crisis may be resolved in a matter of days or weeks; failure to do so will create a sustained and debilitating crisis for the rest of the year. The Senate hearing, the rallies, and the masses may produce more decisive elements that can, on the one hand, push or, on the other hand, delay the inevitable. At this stage, initiative is everything.