The current fighting in North Cotabato should be viewed with the greatest degree of suspicion. Aside from causing more than 130,000 refugees, the level of government response is beyond the requirements of the situation. There is also a suspicion of a complicit act of key government actors in the current peace agreement brouhaha. National security Adviser Norberto Gonzales, Jr., Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Hermogenes Esperon, Jr., and North Cotabato Vice-Governor Manuel Piñol are being suspected in participating in a staged moro-moro to create a situation of instability, blaming the MILF, and laying the ground for a possible declaration of a national state of emergency in the coming days.
Relating this to the announcement of the president to have a charter change for federalism, one can already discern the trajectory of Malacañang towards an attempt to prolong GMA’s stay in power. There is also a tremendous pressure on the AFP to agree to an emergency declaration. Though this is not yet the scenario, future events may occur that are designed to force the AFP’s hand.
Everybody should take note and monitor this dangerous new trend in the situation. To be sure, there are other scenarios developing but any GMA stay-in-power scenario requires Cha-cha and an emergency situation.