There is indication that the charter change initiative is losing steam, if not already abandoned by the proponents. It is not being calendared for urgent action and the expected fireworks in the House of Representatives did not materialized.
What replaces it are the flurries of moves and signals from presidentiables that they will run or open to running. The Lakas-CMD group is meeting now for election decisions. NPC is likewise quietly doing so. Etcetera. etc.
The whiff in the wind smells of elections. And along with it is the speculation that is getting stronger that the Arroyo family has an agreement with a presidentiable already for a post-2010 protection. That we are witnessing now are fruits of the agreement being implemented.
If this is so, then we are now squarely into the 2010 election season. The GMA reign is–to all intent and purposes–over. It’s main preoccupation will be to use the residual power of the Arroyo presidency to shore up the candidacy of its chosen candidate. It will try (I think, futilely) to hold the ball until the end of its term in June 2010 and play the role of the grand padron. However, it will be a lameduck presidency insofar as political decisions are concerned. Initiative will be lost and it will be hard-pressed to maintain consensus in the ruling coalition.
A line has been crossed. The logic of future events will follow the electoral path.