Among all SONA scenarios, one stands out. Former Defense Secretary Nonong Cruz exposé of a martial law plot strikes at the heart of a scenario whose bits and pieces the plotters are unable to hide. The larger scenario is not really–as most who commented on it–the maintenance of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in power. Rather, it is to perpetuate the plotters in power.
The key to the plot is control of the armed forces, including the police, or at least its line of command. This control (or appearance thereof) can then be parlayed to GMA herself or to various groups dreaming or naive enough to believe in a shortcut to power. There may or may not be 2010 elections but the substantive reality of the scenario is the ascension to power of the military institution. In all variations, the one requirement is that democracy or a reasonable facade be retained.
The core plot can be weaved into various scenario threads: one, it can be used to oust GMA and replace her with a favorite in a “palace coup”; two, it can be used to overthrow her and set up a military junta or a civilian “transition” government; three, it can be used to set up appropriate fall guys as an excuse for a martial law regime; and four, create a situation of false unrest and subsequent rise of a “hero” to prop up candidate popularity in the 2010 elections.
All the signals on the plot and scenarios emanate from–you guessed it–those people in the cabinet cluster on internal security and peace and order. They are also the ones most vociferous in denying Secretary Cruz’ exposé. Why do these mix of retired military and civilian militarists doing this destabilizing in full view of the public? Again–you guessed it–the normal course of the 2010 elections is anathema for them as they lose all the powers they have derived from GMA’s nine-year hold on power. Ironically, they also expose GMA’s lameduck status and the consequent appearance of factional centers within Malacañang.
The elections and its scheduled holding enjoy overwhelming support from the people. Unfortunately, these officials do not yet have a viable presidential candidate. In another front, Con-Ass, as the House resolution 1109 mandates, is not going anywhere. They are in what is called DESPERATION mode.