Now that the 2010 elections are just around the corner, surveys are coming out of the woodwork–fast and furious. Aside from the professional survey outfits that have gained national credibility in previous elections, some others are trying to get into the big league or have come across as fly-by-night outfits.
Take for example the race for presidency. The Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia came out with their latest results. The SWS survey covered the period from November 4-8, 2009 while Pulse Asia covered December 8-10, 2009.
The results are basically identical to each other and to the ones in October and September, 2009. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III continues to maintain his estimated 45-47% share of the votes compared to Manuel “Manny” Villar’s 21-23% share. This is basically a 2-1 advantage.
This is bad news for the Villar camp and other presidential candidates. August 5 is already four months ago by last December 8. For Noynoy to maintain his survey standing this long proves that he has a solid political base to stand on and that the Cory factor is not the only one that propelled him to the forefront.
Villar and Joseph “Erap” Estrada benefited from the withdrawal of “Chiz” Escudero from the presidential race. Noynoy and Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro were less benefited.
Erap got 19% of the Pulse Asia survey and had the most gains, coming from an 11% standing in October. It is evident that Manny Villar would have to get this Erap vote to even reach a position to seriously challenge Noynoy’s standing. Failure to do so will prove fatal to his bid. The same can be said for Erap’s own bid.
If the trends persist to the end of January 2010, the whole opposition to Noynoy will have to pool resources behind a single candidate to seriously challenge him.
Or, adopt desperate measures, perhaps, to stop a juggernaut?