Pulse Asia issued its last survey results before the May 10, 2010 elections. the significant findings one can glean from it are the following:
1. Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III has already built up a formidable 39% share of the votes, 19% over Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar’s 20%. or a nearly 2-to-1 advantage. At this point, Senator Noynoy Aquino is already above the estimated threshold for a landslide victory.
2. Former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada had the same percent share of votes as Manny Villar at 20%. He is poised to overtake him in the next two weeks at the current rate he has been increasing his votes.
3. Senator Manny Villar failed to stem the downward trajectory of his votes which started in February 2010. Now, it is plummeting and threatening to nosedive.
The same pattern emerges in the vice presidential race with a new twist.
1. Noynoy Aquino’s running mate Senator Mar Roxas has maintained his lead despite a 6% dip in his ratings, from 43% to 37%.
2. Villar’s running mate, Senator Loren Legarda, further drifted down to 20% and has been overtaken by Erap Estrada’s running mate, Mayor Jojo Binay who has a notable upsurge from 19% in March to the current 28%.
3. Mayor Binay now threatens even Senator Mar Roxas’ lead and can be considered as a major contender now to win the vice-presidency.
More or less, these results are mirrored in the surveys of SWS. Manila Standard, DZRH, and even in the rumored internal survey done by Secretary Ronaldo Puno.
If these trends hold, then we can expect a clear, even a landslide win for Senator Noynoy Aquino on May 10. If his lead is maintained above 15%, there is little possibility for election cheating to succeed without a sharp response from the aggravated citizenry.
The last quarter inches towards its last two minutes. If strategies of the candidates behind the frontrunner have to be changed, it is now the time to do so. Failure to adjust dooms the quest.