One of the most observable phenomenon in this post-Ondoy and pre-Christmas season is the proliferation of ads, banners, flyers, and any and all ads of would-be candidates. The latter range from the presidential wannabees down to the littlest councilor wannabees. If you still don’t know it, we are already in the midst of the 2010 election campaign period.

To be sure, according to the Commission on Elections, the 2010 elections are not yet here, not even the filing of certificates of candidacy (the deadline is still to come on December 1, 2009). The official election period will start on January 10, 2010; that of the official campaign period for presidential, vice-presidential, senatorial and party-list candidates is on February 9, 2010,  and that for the district representatives and local candidates is on March 26, 2010.

Yet, we are already witness to a “non-campaign” campaigning by virtually all the prospective candidates. One of the reasons, of course, is the recent Supreme Court ruling defining as pre-campaigning (and thus subject to penalties for election violation) any promotion of, for and in behalf of a candidate who filed his or her candidacy during the period starting on December 2, 2009 until February 8, 2010.

Another is that the early deadline for the filing of certificate of candidacy inevitably led to the early decision to run or not to run, to coalesce or not to coalesce, to make up the slate for co-candidates, or to otherwise prepare for elections. Preparations requiring the input of the public perception of a candidate (such as campaign contribution, alliance-making, or media planning) had to be done in a hurry and in the quickest time possible. Name-recall is the name of the game this early.

And so, we have these infomercials, birthday greetings, advance christmas greetings, provincial sorties and other trappings of a full-blown political campaign. At the level of the presidential contest, this is a doubly urgent necessity because of the way surveys are showing the strength of the Noynoy Aquino presidential bid. BCA3 has to be cut down to the level of a “normal” candidate and his momentum drastically brought to a halt.

Whatever, my two-cents opinion is that all of these activities constitute pre-campaigning. Meaning, these should be banned and punished for undermining the constitutional mandate for a free and fair 2010 elections.

Senator Chiz Escudero’s announcement that he is leaving the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) will effectively remove him from the list of serious presidential contenders. Even if he still decides to run, it will not be as effective as before. What is shaping up is his opening up to a possible vice-presidential run. However, he will be in contention with Sen. Loren Legarda who had already decided to seek a vice-presidential candidacy.

The vice-presidential bid is only a real option for both of them with Sen. Manny Villar as the presidential candidate. The possibility with Sec. Gibo Teodoro is fraught with hidden and open dangers for oppositionists such as Chiz and Loren.

Both Chiz and Loren are in a dilemma. If they do not secure the vice-presidential slot with Sen. Villar, they would have to power down. At least, they can continue as senators, with three years still to go. However, the trip to the 2016 presidential race would take twice as long and twice as hard.

That is the gamble they have taken when they put their hats into the 2010 presidential electoral contest. They appear to have lost and the remaining question is how to cut loses.

A little over a month from now, the deadline for filing of a presidential candidacy is here. However, only a few days remain for forging a serious presidential-vice-presidential tandem. The Noynoy Aquino-Mar Roxas tandem (Liberal Party) and the Erap Estrada-Jojo Binay tandem (United Opposition) have already announced their decision. Manny Villar–standing as the strongest  contender after Noynoy–is due to announce his vice-presidential running mate anytime soon. Gibo Teodoro will probably pick his own in the next few days.

Chiz Escudero–with his various postponements of the announcement of his own presidential candidacy–is now perceived to be in danger of being forced to drop it altogether. The announcement of his NPC partymate and perceived vice-presidential running mate Loren Legarda that she is making herself available as a vice-presidential candidate to other presidentiables fueled speculations of an imminent retreat. Likewise, there is the question of whether or not NPC padrone Danding Cojuangco and the business sector identified with him are forthcoming with the huge funds he needs.

The more probable decision will be either to target the vice-presidential candidate post under Manny Villar or to do nothing (Chiz still has three years as a senator). A decision to continue his presidential bid will risk losing steam early in the campaign. Worse, it may lead to accusation of playing a spoiler role to the front-running candidacies.

Gibo has a different problem. He has not yet demonstrated his capacity to make dramatic moves in support of his floor-level popularity. The series of recent typhoons have not treated his presidential bid kindly but instead may have hurt him more. His direction of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) is perceived to be indecisive and prone to kibitzing by his fellows in the Cabinet and incumbent candidates who are afflicted with ADS (Attention-Deficit Syndrome). If his candidacy does not take off, he may also be forced to let go of it.

Erap may have already made his miting de avance but this does not ensure that he can go the distance. He is relatively low in finances, political base, and even in the surveys for a toe-to-toe fight. With the constitutional and legal questions hanging like a sword of Damocles over his candidacy, he may choose to parlay whatever his current strength for concessions from the frontrunners.

Vice-President Noli de Castro was an early drop-out in the race, but he has his own possibilities for a run at vice-presidency. However, his perceived pro-administration credentials can only hamper his principal. The latter will have to gamble if he becomes the vice-presidential bet.

The advent of a Noynoy populist candidacy has cast a cruel shadow on all the other candidacies.  Suddenly, the field has narrowed to such a point that–aside from Noynoy–it can only accommodate one other, or at most, two candidacies with any hope of a victory. The latter is premised, of course, on chipping away at Noynoy’s current commanding lead in the surveys and doing their homework on the ground.

In the aftermath of the disasters called “Ondoy” and “Pepeng”,  government–or rather, the GMA administration– suddenly found its political will. It will rehabilitate; it will reconstruct; it will prepare for future disasters; and it will relocate people in danger zones. It is so eager that it is egging on the swift passage of an unprecedented PhP 1.5 trillion national budget and a PhP 12 billion separate disaster fund. Now there is the wild proposal for a PhP 280 billion “reconstruction” loan. This is on top of existing funds for infrastructure, disaster, and contingencies.

Not to left out any source of disaster funds, the administration has appealed for massive international aid, tapped funds of the SSS and other non-government finance institutions, and is enjoining the private business sector to open up their purses. It is virtually a heyday for gift-asking.

After the delayed, misprioritized, and grossly-inadequate government response to the twin disasters, government has come back with a vengeance. And what a comeback! Grandiose promises of dredging the entire Laguna de Bay and the Marikina-Pasig river system,  relocation of entire communities, and all kinds of disaster prevention/mitigation/rehabilitation solutions.

Most of the proposals, aside from their grandioseness (and possibly foolishness), need a lot of money. More accurately, these rationalize the need for more money. And there’s the rub. When politicians become suddenly a humanitarian, an environment-lover, or an engineer, people have to be very wary. When they start preaching for the money, we should start running away and ask the obvious questions.

The first question is: Where did all those disaster/contingency/emergency funds through the years went?

The second question is: Most government agencies are supposed to be primed for services, including those in times of disaster: where are the rubber boats, the emergency food, the Doppler radars, the trained disaster managers, and, not the least, the funds?

The third question is: Why the cry of incumbent politicians for huge funds from virtually everybody–except their own pockets?

The obvious question is: Why, in an election year, the cry for huge funds? Why, in the twilight of one’s stay in power, the eagerness to access mind-boggling amount of money?

The obvious answer is: Not for Ondoy, not for Pepeng.

What gall!

This is a bit premature because we do not know yet the final list of presidential candidates–the Noynoy candidacy and the Ondoy/Peping disasters have thrown all previous agreements on line-ups into disarray and negotiations are still going on for certain president-vice-president combinations (or re-combinations). Of course, these would affect the handling of election issues and even what these issues will be.

However, there are certain issues that are sure to be part of the 2010 electoral campaign and will affect the vote of major segments of the electorate. I list the following:

1. Corruption. This issue cuts across other issues and serves as the predominant negative image of the traditional politician.

2. Anti-people policy and posture. This is a perception issue (also cuts across a broad range of national, local and sectoral issues) and defines how people identify (or do not identify) with certain candidates.

3. Disaster mishandling. This is a new issue underlined by the Ondoy/Peping tragedies that affected to a significant degree the important middle class in major urban centers in Luzon. The proximity to the 2010 elections means this will become an important issue, particularly in areas hit by disasters (basically, the entire country).

4. Lack of or insufficient credentials for credible leadership. This is not so much a question of competence but of the willingness of the people to heed and follow an elected president. This is an outgrowth of the failure of the GMA leadership from the electorate’s point of view.

5. Noynoy Aquino. His being an issue is not so much of who he is or what his presidential aspirations are but rather because the opposition to him will need to bring issues against him. The uniform result of surveys put him in an unprecedented runaway pole position. Making him an issue is a daunting, if urgent,  task for the other presidential candidates. If they do not do so even this early, they will be in danger of watching helplessly in the sidelines Noynoy’s ascendancy to the presidency.

The issues of the 2010 presidential elections are a mix of old and new ones. However, they could not be handled in the usual way. The elections themselves will not be in the usual way. Strategists, beware.