One after the other, the rice “crisis” and the Meralco squeeze appeared to distract us, the public, from the more mundane political concerns such as the ZTE-NBN scandal, cha-cha, and the GMA legitimacy crisis. Rice, after all, is a staple Filipino food nobody wants to be without on a daily basis. Electricity, on the other hand, is more than a necessity in the urbanized areas–it drives life daily and hourly.

There is truth, I think, to the speculation that the GMA strategists are using the psychology of crisis to get out of their own real crisis. In this mindset, what can more rapidly dissipate public attention from a crisis such as the ZTE-NBN but the creation of another crisis. This time, a crisis not of its own making or, more desirable, a crisis you can blame your opponents.

Unfortunately, in the case of the rice “crisis”, what was initially bruited by the GMA administration as a supply problem turned out to be a price problem. And sources within its own ranks say the rice price problem, including the recent sudden rise of global rice market price, is an artificial one actually engendered by the NFA itself. They cite the first NFA tender for buying rice in the world market before the global price began to rise. It was an unheard-of US$1,200 per ton at a time when the global price was at a low US$800 per ton–a 50% overprice. As sure as there is the law of supply and demand, the market price of rice began racing after the NFA demand price.

In fact, it created a sort of panic in the very narrow global rice market, with supplier countries taking steps to protect their own citizens and control and regulate the rice trading, including a possible creation of the Organization of Rice Exporting Countries (OREC). It has even caused the tightening of supplies and price hikes in other food commodities (incidentally, the global food crisis is real).

The same sources said that the Philippines already had secured the required supply of 500,000 MT of imported rice before this first NFA tender. This is already enough for this year as the domestic production is expected to surpass last year’s production. The recent and planned tenders appear to be smokescreens.

The question therefore arises. What for did the GMA administration drum up the rice “crisis”? The only logical answer I can find–apart from the political distraction–is that somebody or somebodies are making a killing in the rice market. The price of rice is shooting through the roof. Yet, the mystery tales from the farmers are that the middlemen are not buying in extraordinary quantities in these times of an alleged demand market. The inescapable conclusion is that the same somebody or somebodies already had the supply before it happened–probably through technical smuggling (NFA conduit) or direct smuggling. They are now reaping the superprofits.

These acts, particularly of government people, are simply treason.

The sudden interest by the administration in Meralco, on the other hand, provides an interesting insight into the problems of the transition from power of the GMA administration. The Lopezes are both an economic and a political giant with capability for major intervention in the presidential elections in 2010. They have the connections to all the presidentiables.

Throw in the current situation where none of the presidentiables have even intimated–despite prolonged negotiations–their openness to give the Arroyo people a practical immunity from suits once they are out of power. Add the debatable–and increasingly narrowing–charter change option. Time also ticks towards a political lameduck scenario. You have the ingredients for many desperate moves. The Meralco arm-twisting is one of them.

Apart from it, however, there is the real desire to get hold of Meralco itself–the same ambition that only Marcos was able to bring to reality during his heyday as a dictator. It is an economic jewel and in the EPIRA aftermath, the apex of ambition for GMA cronies in the industry (remember the Transco bid).

What ties together the rice “crisis” and the Meralco arm-twisting is the observable trend since the Garci tapes scandal emerged–to make considerable hay while the sun shines (or before it inevitably sets). This is supposedly the major reason for the Cabinet revamp, but that’s another story.

News on Moro-related affairs are pushing into the national headlines. The impending pull-out of the Malaysian contingent from the International Monitoring Team (IMT), the hullabaloo about the automation of ARMM elections, the assassination of two Moro chiefs of the Comelec legal department, the release on bail of Nur Misuari, his formal booting-out from the MNLF Chairmanship by the other MNLF group, huge rallies calling for Moro independence, and the various anti-ASG military offensives–these have continually reached the front pages of national media.

They collectively show the restlessness slowly gripping Moroland in the light of two major political events that are currently being played out: one, the conclusion–either a success or a failure–of the GOP-MILF peace talks, and, two, the August ARMM elections.

The outcome of the GOP-MILF peace talks largely depends on achieving agreement on the definition and scope of territory covered by the ancestral domain claimed by the MILF. Basically, it posits that, wherever the Moro are in majority, the territory shall be part of a new Moro autonomous region. Ancestral domain, to MILF, corresponds to a territorial arrangement where there is a Moro self-government. News reports speak of more than 1,000 barangays not only in the current ARMM but extending all the way to certain places in Luzon and non-Moro Mindanao.

The GOP has tried to grapple with the claim by offering a much broader ARMM arrangement within the framework of the Constitution, including a possible local state within a federal Philippine state as proposed in a constitutional reform proposal by various figures in the Philippine government. However, there are suspicions within the government that the MILF proposal–even when there are concessions–basically lays the groundwork for a Moro independent state.

Kuala Lumpur had been hosting the GOP-MILF peace negotiations for sometime and it heads the 60-man IMT. Its decision to withdraw from the IMT–and possibly from the hosting of the negotiations–was publicly linked to its frustration over the stalled talks. However, a recent report alluded to an accusation by an unnamed government official saying that Malaysia wants to make hay while ostensibly hosting–by negotiating on the side for the Philippines to drop its Sabah claim. However true this accusation, the fact that it was made exposes the building tensions surrounding the Moro rebellion issue.

At the same time, the upcoming ARMM elections complicate matters as various political forces maneuver to seize opportunities they offer. The ruling Ampatuan clan is trying to maintain its hold on power. The MNLF-Sema wing will reportedly field Muslimin Sema to contest the governorship. Misuari himself is reportedly eyeing a rerun for the post. MILF is also reportedly organizing to support a candidate.

The ARMM elections are crucial for the future of the Moro issue. The outcome will certainly affect the peace and rebellion prospects in the area, particularly if there is a breakdown of the GOP-MILF peace negotiations. There are already pressures building up to prevent a successful election automation and to undertake massive electoral violence and cheating.

The coming months in the Moro heartland certainly bear watching.

When Malacañang drumbeaters flew a trial balloon on another round of charter change a few weeks ago, it basically signaled the exploration, if not a serious attempt, at initiating the process. Of course, this will certainly be within the context of term extension.

However, a few were puzzled when Senator Pimentel launched a charter change initiative–ostensibly for federalism–just a few days ago. Just as swiftly, Secretary Bunyi announced that the Palace has no plans for charter change at this time.

The Pimentel move is supported by 10 senators, including Senate President Manny Villar. What gives? The logical suspicion–given the consistent anti-cha-cha position of most senators is that it is a gambit essentially to preempt a reportedly serious Palace decision to launch a charter change initiative in the few months remaining before the 2010 election fever sets it. It is a political thrust designed to control the tempo on the issue and prevent it from endangering the 2010 elections.

The Palace denial, in this light, is a move of somebody with hands caught in a cookie jar, especially after the past record of failed cha-cha attempts and the broad hints of the past few weeks. An indication of the true intent of Malacañang will be the rumored Cabinet rigodon next month.

As it is, GMA is still maintaining all options, including negotiations with presidentiables.

After the hesitation of the CBCP to make a decisive moral judgment and the manifest Supreme Court majority support for her position, president Macapagal-Arroyo and her allies see a possible victory for maintaining power up to 2010 and beyond. However, a looming impeachment move against her and the resurgence of people power kept her wary and on her toes.

As the 2010 end of her term nears, GMA has to make a decision shortly: whether to gamble on a new charter change initiative to prolong her stay in power or to conclude negotiations with a possible successor. To be sure, she keeps her options open and will not likely make a decision until the last minute.

As it is, the charter change option has been opened with the probable repeat of a people’s initiative–this time hoping that a compliant Supreme Court will allow it. This is a tricky proposition given the fierce popular opposition in 2006 and the political awakening of the middle class. The temptation is there for an intimidating use of military and police force to force through an initiative.

The second half of 2008 promises to be decisive in this regard as it is the last chance before the election fever sets in in earnest. In the same token, this period is also the last chance for the broad opposition to force her to step down.

Presidentiables are currently assessing their positions on how to ride on these scenarios for their bids in 2010. These tend to make them cautious and take a wait-and-see attitude, while maintaining vigilance for opportunities for political gains. Likewise, timidity sets in among the power institutions–they are also loathe to be decisive in the current situation.

Malacañang thus is encouraged to be adventurous.

Last April 11, the Philippines came under a universal periodic review for its human rights record by the UN Human Rights Council. The government was represented by a 40-man delegation headed by Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita and Cecilia Quisumbing, Chairman and Executive Director of the Presidential Human Rights Committee (PHRC). The Philippine Commission on Human Rights (PCHR) attended as a separate delegation, presenting itself as a non-government organization, headed by Chairperson Lourdes Quisumbing.

The Philippine NGOs and international human rights NGOs–some 30 of them–were also present in full force. KARAPATAN and its allied organizations, the Philippine Alliance of Human Rights Advocates (PAHRA) and its member-organizations, the Free Legal Assistance Group (FLAG), and some sectoral human rights organizations were there to lobby for their positions which they earlier submitted.

Expectedly, the Philippine delegation claimed “success” in defending its human rights record, citing an audience reaction of a “privileged applause” to Secretary’s Ermita’s presentation (as cited in today’s Philippine Daily Inquirer’s editorial). Expectedly, Karapatan’s lawyer, Edre Olalia, was “appalled by the ebullient presentation of barefaced lies, spins and out-of-this-world razzle-dazzle.”

The official Philippine report glossed over the major issues of extra-judicial killings and enforced disappearances–issues that the Philip Alston report squarely blamed the AFP and the PNP as mainly responsible for. It downplayed the numbers, and even made much of the fact that some of those reported killed were actually alive and that the New People’s Army were responsible for some of the cases.

On the other hand, Karapatan stuck to its claim of nearly 900 victims of extra-judicial killing and 183 victims of enforced disappearance–a figure far above what the Amnesty International and other human rights groups had confirmed.

To be sure, everybody acknowledged the abolition of death penalty as a step forward. However, this has been done already by the 1987 Constitution. When GMA did it, it was only to correct a Ramos law on death penalty for heinous crimes. It was also basically to correct an untenable policy in the face of government’s efforts to prevent executions of overseas Filipino workers. Some would even claim it was a self-serving decision because the Plunder Law allows death penalty.

However, in one crucial respect, all the reports were one in acknowledging the Philippine government’s incomplete implementation of international human rights agreements. The Philippines is not a party to the Optional Protocol to the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (OP-CAT) and the Rome Statute on the International Criminal Court, and that it has not recognized the provision in the CAT on individual complaints. The Philippines has not also ratified the Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance.

Apart from these, the government is also suspect in the eyes of the NGOs in actually implementing those agreements it has signed, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights (ICESCR). Electoral cheating, corruption, breaking up of peaceful rallies, development aggression, degradation of health and education, pervasive poverty, assaults on informal sectors, and the like are not exactly the proper actuations of a pro-human rights regime.

In fact, human rights in the Philippines–an issue since Marcos–are still to be correctly institutionalized and properly implemented. The GMA administration still has a lot to answer for. Polite applause cannot trump the real record.