On Tuesday, February 9, 2010, the official campaign for the national elective positions will begin. Of course, this is an anti-climactic event–even a non-event since people (and voters) knew all along that the national campaign started more than two years ago.

What promises to inject to what otherwise ho-hum affair is the perception that there will now be a real race for the presidency between LP’s Noynoy Aquino and NP’s Manny Villar. This perception is based on the latest Pulse Asia survey of January 22-26, 2010.

This particular survey showed that Aquino had only 37% and lost 8% or 4 million votes since the earlier December 8-10, 2009 where he got 45%. Villar, on the other hand,  had 35% and gained 6 million votes since the December survey where he got only 23%.

The SWS had its own survey–with essential the same question–last January 21-24, 2010. In this survey, it showed that Aquino had 42% and lost 2 million votes from its survey of December 5-10, 2009 where he got 46%. Villar, on the other hand, had 35% and gained 4 million votes since the December survey where he got 27%.

The two surveys–assuming the soundness of their methodologies and the security of their field implementation–are supposed to produce the same results given the same periods of their December and January surveys, the same margin of error of 2.2%, and the basically the same question they asked. However, there is a significant discrepancy beyond the margin of error in the survey results.

First, Villar’s Pulse Asia ratings shoot up 12 percentage points while his SWS ratings only manage a 7 percentage point increase. Second, Aquino’s Pulse Asia ratings dropped by 8 percentage points while his SWS ratings only had a 4 percentage point-drop.

The two surveys agreed on the Aquino loss and the Villar gain. However, the numbers on the actual degree of loss or gain is not conclusive.

What remains is the perception that Villar has caught up with Aquino. This is courtesy of the Pulse Asia survey.

The start of the presidential campaign therefore will become a tit-for-tat, drag-down, bitchy campaign. Perception or not, the two contenders and their supporters cannot afford to lose an opportunity, exploit an opening or vulnerability of the opponent, or to fail to defend from the other side’s thrust, counter-thrust or offensive.

The first one to blink loses the presidency.

The latest SWS survey results of January 21-24, 2010 are in. In it, Noynoy Aquino  still maintains his lead over Manny Villar with 42% of the votes against Villar’s 35%. However, this is already 2% less than his 44% in the December 27-28, 2009 SWS survey.

Villar, meanwhile, improved from his 33% standing. However, this is a smaller gain than his 6% gain from the previous 3-week period in December 2009. Villar got around 1%  of his gain from Noynoy, the other 1% from Erap Estrada (who dipped from 15% to 13%). At this rate, it is a fifty-fifty chance if he can catch up with Noynoy by election time.

It is definitely going to be a tough time ahead for both. Manny villar will have to do more to maintain his momentum while Noynoy Aquino will have to fight tooth and nail to preserve or even expand his lead. The fight will become more interesting as both go into the formal campaign period.

Manny Villar will have a harder time because of his second-place position and the absence of undecided votes. He has to chip away at the votes of other candidates and his one major objective is to either cannibalize Erap’s votes or get the latter to stand aside and endorse him.

Noynoy Aquino worry is the vulnerability of his poorer constituency to the anti-poverty song of Villar’s ads and his own ineffectiveness to offer his alternatives (so far). The mantra against corruption and for honest government can only bring his campaign so far.

Of course, the SWS survey does not yet cover the period of the Senate Committee of the Whole recommendation on the C5 extension case in which Villar is implicated. It definitely would impact on the campaign, but this cdannot be measured at this time.

The other candidates are slowly losing their grip on the electorate and will have to confront the reality of their losing bids. This would also impact on the future of the Noynoy Aquino-Manny Villar one-on-one contest.

The feeding frenzy now surrounding the involvement of Sen. Manny Villar in the alleged C-5 extension corruption scandal is taking a political toll on his campaign for presidency. Whatever the outcome, damage has been done by the issuance of a Senate Committee-of-the Whole report on the matter.

The accusers do not need the completion of the Senate processes to do it. The circumstances around the issue will have already made Villar vulnerable.

First, the decision not to face the issue in the Senate arena of formal committee investigation, I think was the initial mistake. It merely postponed the inevitable and put the political initiative in the accuser’s hand.

Second, the Villar campaign line of “mayaman na galing sa mahirap” was seriously undermined–the Senate probe results cast doubt on the source of his wealth.

Third, his maneuvers regarding the issue also put the doubt on his capability to lead and manage the affairs of government–a key campaign argument he uses effectively against Noynoy Aquino.

What all these amount to is the current Villar calvary–arriving at this crucial moment when he is trying to narrow the Aquino lead in the surveys. The latter is already a tough job considering the narrowing window for positioning before the formal campaign starts on February 9.

Sen. Villar does not need the crucification by his Senate detractors. His campaign is already in peril.

The Commission on Elections’ 2nd Division just ruled that former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada can run as a presidential candidate. To be sure, the decision skirted the constitutional arguments by asserting that this is a political question that the voters can only resolved.

The legal  road is still a long one for Erap. The decision will almost surely be subjected to motions for reconsideration, appealed to the en banc Comelec, and brought before the Supreme Court.

However it will end, the Erap factor is turning out to be the nearly decisive factor in the coming period. On one hand, his continued candidacy pulls possible votes from the current front-runner,Sen. Noynoy Aquino, and the second-placer, Sen. Manny Villar. His 15% in the SWS December 27-28, 2009 survey–even if divided between the two–can easily lead to a decisive Aquino victory or to a close Villar victory.

Maintaining an Erap candidacy favors Aquino since there is already a dearth of undecided votes for Villar to harvest and the votes of former Secretary Gibo Teodoro are not enough to offset the Noynoy lead. It is also becoming clear that the Aquino votes are a solid one and cannot easily be fragmented.

It is crucial for Villar to convince Erap to step aside and, more favorably, endorse his candidacy. In a turn of fate, the often-derided “has-been” president may will determine the future of the presidential candidates, the presidency itself, and possibly, the nation after 2010.

A brouhaha was raised by Congressman Mathias Defensor’s proposal as the representative of the House of Representatives in the Judicial Bar Council (JBC). He proposed that the JBC make an advanced nomination for the position of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, before it is vacated by a retiring Chief Justice Reynato Puno on May 17, 2010.

This is supposed to pave the way for President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to immediately appoint CJ Puno’s successor in order to avoid creating a vacuum in the Supreme Court going into the transition to the next President.

Of course, it ran straight into a maelstrom of constitutional, legal and political flak–not the least because of the proximity of the May 2010 elections and the assumption into office of a new president on June 30, 2010.

The most obvious constitutional obstacle is Article VII, Section 15: “Two months immediately before the next presidential elections and up to the end of his term, a President or Acting President shall not make appointments, except temporary appointments to executive positions when continued vacancies therein will prejudice public service or endanger public safety.“

The other relevant provisions are the following:

Article VIII, Section 9. “The Members of the Supreme Court and judges of the lower courts shall be appointed by the President from a list of at least three nominees prepared by the Judicial and Bar Council for every vacancy.“

Article VIII, Section 4 (1).” The Supreme Court shall be composed of a Chief Justice and fourteen Associate Justices. It may sit en banc or in its discretion, in division of three, five, or seven Members. Any vacancy shall be filled within ninety days from the occurrence thereof.”

Taken in context, Congressman Defensor’s proposal is a politically-laden proposal and basically undercuts the new president’s prerogative to appoint the next SC chief justice. It tries to go around the blunt constitutional ban on midnight presidential appointments. In effect, it forms part and parcel of the GMA plan for post-term political survival.

It is no wonder that presidential candidates took a dim view of the proposal, particularly the frontrunner, Sen. Noynoy Aquino, who posited the strongest stand against it.

The constitution disallows the current president from making the appointment but allows the new president to appoint based on the recommendation of the JBC. The 90-day period for a presidential appointment of the chief justice covers the period up to August 15, 2010.

It is also to be noted that the Supreme Court is a collegial body and usually it appoints an acting chief justice if there is none. It is business as usual in the Supreme Court, with or without the Chief Justice.

It means there is no crisis scenario when Chief Justice Puno retires on May 17, 2010. The crisis is in Congressman Defensor’s imagination–and the real crisis is the current president’s own trek to the political shadows. Midnight–to the good congressman–comes at twilight.