The Batasan bombing, the Dalaig assassination, the Glorietta incident. Are they mere coincidences of unrelated events or are they part of a subtle political strategy directed towards a particular objective(s)?
The various reactions so far that came out range from airy dismissal as coincidental, unrelated (Malacañang) to a dark US-inspired conspiracy (CPP). There are a lot of other theories in between but what is striking in all these other speculations is the disbelief of official police pronouncements.
Maybe it is just the generally low level of credibility of the Macapagal-Arroyo’s government, but there is the disquieting real political context that these events are being tested within. This context includes the pressure on the GMA people to ensure their political survival in the face of the 2010 end of her term, the creeping doom of a lameduck presidency, the uncertain health of key administration figures, the failure to make headway with any agreement with the opposition or with the presidentiables, the renewed efforts by varied groups of the opposition to get her out of power, and the unchanging negative public opinion.
At the moment, the political situation points to the imperative on the president to make a decisive decision soon on which path she will take to ensure her own survival beyond 2010. The name of the game right now is called “transition management.”
She does not have much time left for her to decide (and make this public) since all the options require long and difficult preparations. All the interested political actors–within and outside her ruling coalition, local as well as foreign–know this. All are exerting pressure to push their own agenda and–the jackpot–to be the one to manage the transition.
Of course, GMA may not really leave the scene–witness her pronouncements on a charter change initiative. There are some in her coalition who wants to use the charter change to extend her term in power (and their own) and they are moving heaven and civil society to make this happen.
However, the chances for this are slim, unless her administration scatters the opposition and unleashes white terror on civil society. The desperate temptation to declare martial law or a state of emergency stem from the reality of a people’s resistance to charter change under GMA’s tutelage.
It is a coincidence that dramatic events such as the Batasan bombing, the Dalaig assassination, or the Glorietta incident occur one after the other in this moment of political conjuncture. Still-unfolding events will show whether these are real coincidences or planned moves in a game of political strategy.
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I have always been fascinated by the interplay of seemingly unrelated connection events until a clear pattern emerges .My fascination with the “Connections” approach to history started when I watched the whole BBC series on “Connections” in the early 80s.
Backgrounder: “Connections” was a ten-episode BBC documentary television series created and narrated by science historian James Burke.
Connections explored an “Alternative View of Change” that rejected the conventional linear view of historical progress. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular event in isolation. Rather, the entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting in rational self-interest with no concept of the final, modern result of what either their or their contemporaries’ actions finally lead to.
Philippine Scenario: With this “Connection perspective”, we only have to connect the dots of the recent events to see a gradual pattern and see the big picture we have all been longing for…
* It starts with a brave journalist and his expose on ZTE.
* “Back off!” drama in Wack Wack.
* The emergence of a most unlikely and brave whistle blower.
* The “Sec, may 200 ka dito” attempted bribery during a golf game in Wack Wack.
* The Senate hearings on ZTE.
* Neri invoking “executive” privilege as shield.
* The proposed impeachment of Daddy chair.
* The resignation of Daddy chair.
* The cancellation of ZTE deal.
* Pulido’s impeachment immunization move.
* The bribery of Governors/Congressmen in Malacanang.
* The bravery of Among Ed.
* The hasty pardon of ERAP.
* The Ayala “Big Fart”
* The “Impeach Me” drama in Batasan
* The Batasan bombing
* Justice Committee junks Pulido complaint.
The people are not stupid; they can and do connect the dots; they can clearly see the “ties that bind them”.