The president’s trip to Spain raised more than its usual share of speculation for the unprecedented size of its entourage. There were speculations that plans had been hatched for a possible charter change initiative next year or, at the least, for a decisive oust-Speaker de Venecia strategy. An interesting speculative counterpoint was for the mapping out of a GMA political retreat.
Whatever the truth, the present situation invites these speculations. The president, according to the constitution, will have to end her term of office at noon of June 30, 2010. If she wants to do anything about this–whether to accept this gracefully or to attempt an extension of her stay in power–she has only a few months at the most.
Any extension of term or a new mandate under a separate political arrangement requires a constitutional change. Again, the only options here is either a people’s initiative or a constituent assembly–a constitutional convention will take too long.
She tried it in 2006 but both attempts failed because of institutional and civil society resistance. Martial law or a declaration of national emergency had been seen by Malacañang hardliners as an indispensable requirement in the next charter change attempt in order to overcome this resistance. However, this is a chancy option at best, given the fractured and politically-mired military with uncertain loyalty.
The Manila Pen incident underscored this uncertainty with both sides in the military and police stand-off engaged in a complicated moro-moro. Whatever its other nuances, the ultimate message of the affair is the complete dependence of the political leadership on military support and the military’s choosing its own rules.
The options for the president is narrowing. Compromise with the broad political opposition is almost gone and her maintaining the option for term extension is riling all presidentiables–whether from the opposition or from her own coalition.
In a situation where the transition to a lameduck presidency has already begun, there is growing pressure for her to resign in order to normalize the political situation–in time for the 2010 presidential elections. Resignation, in this case, is the price she may have to pay to ensure her survival in the post-2010 period. If she choose to stick it out, the only option left for her is to throw caution to the wind and go all out for term extension. Otherwise, she may be helplessly caught in a maelstrom of conspiracies as all the other political forces fight for the high ground towards succession.
She–and the nation–are at a crossroad.
“Uulitin ko: Hindi ako sagabal sa ambisyon ninuman.
But make no mistake. I will not stand idly when anyone gets in the way of the national interest and tries to block the national vision. From where I sit, I can tell you, a President is always as strong as she wants to be.”SONA 2007”
Mon:I give you three (3) good reasons why she will try her best to stay in power after June 30, 2010:
1) She really loves to travel!!!
2) She does the opposite of what she says.(Remember,her famous “I will not run…”)
3) Ronnie Puno
[…] also Manila Bay Watch on this score. In his blog, Mon Casiple looks at talk that one reason the President had a large entourage during her Spanish visit, was […]
Hi, Mon.
Interesting analysis, as always and, honestly, I haven’t thought of resignation as an option for her.
It may well be an option – but it would seem to be the least palatable one for her. It may seem – objectively – to be a ‘clean’ way out but it may be seen as problematic on two or more levels. For one … there will be no guarantees that she can get away ‘clean’ – promises (to politicians, at least) are made to be broken. At the same time, there will be the nay-sayers from the elite who will – probably – shudder at the thought of Noli de Castro taking over in a ‘transition’ or ‘caretaker’ government with every possibility that Ka Noli will use the opportunity to ensure his own ascension to the top slot.
For another, I wonder whether all those who’ve hitched their wagons to her star will be that willing to let her go quietly, “like a thief in the night.” There may just be too much hidden resentments floating all around for the people who’ve propped her up all these years (and who, by the by, ‘earned’ from it) to feel safe if – or *when* she departs.
What’s truly worrisome, however, is your observation that her options – and the window of opportunity to exercise those options – is narrowing. After the Manila Pen incident, I’ve seen a lot of opinion writers say something like ‘reducing the avenues for legal redress of grievances means that the illegal approaches become more palatable.’
I wonder if they realize that the statement applies just as much to GMA ? With both options and time narrowing, just what will keep her (or the people around her) from taking a reckless path simply because they are beginning to feel cornered and give in to the belief that they had better strike back before the heavens fall on them?
On the other hand … one thing I’m wondering about … one way I can see for her ‘legal initiatives’ (Cha-Cha via people’s initiative or constituent assembly) may work is *if* there is something ‘spectacular’ to go along with it … something that will make people re-think their position of anger and resentment towards her, and make them ‘ride along’ with whatever she wants.
Something like doing a “Saul on the road to Damascus” type of thing … she denounces all the corruption going on around her, orders Mike, Abalos and whoever else thrown into jail while pouring ashes on her head and bleating, “Mea culpa, mea culpa” while promising to clean up the stables in the last two years of her administration…
Of course, if she does this in front of the Rizal Monument on Rizal Day, I might just die laughing.
More power to you!
G.L.O.R I.A
A complex character with very strong personal ambitions and no clear understanding “of what‘s right and wrong” : Her biography opens with a simple but revealing statement :“ Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, holds many records.”
It appears that every life event to her is an opportunity to satisfy a personal ambition.Like an Olympic athlete ,her life is all about keeping a scorecard and breaking records at all costs.
You don’t have to look at a crystal ball to predict what Gloria will do in 2008. We have a president whose psychological makeup inclines her do as she pleases. Because the House of Representatives has been bribed, and the military top brass stacked with loyalists, she has gotten away with it — so far.The way things are moving, there is infinite opportunity to diddle and dodge — in effect conducting business pretty much as usual until 2010 (or longer if the Cha-Cha train moves on)
1)Gloria will pursue cha-cha with “urgency and vigor.” With the prospect of her staying in power beyond 2010 courtesy of cha-cha, she can still command the support of congressmen, especially when impeachment time comes again next year.
2)Gloria will circumnavigate the world many times over. “She is unwavering in her commitment to travel on behalf of Philippine interests, and nothing will deter her. “Secretary Bunye
3) Gloria will extend the tenure of Mr. Esperon who is supposed to retire in February 2008. Gloria’s relationship with him is no different from Marcos’ relationship with Ver.
4) Gloria will appoint Ronnie Puno as Executive secretary. Ronnie is arguably the most powerful and most trusted cabinet member.
5) Gloria will have more mega China deals. The ZTE deal was not the last.
6) Gloria will find ways to replace Joe De Venecia as Speaker. Prospero Nograles will do “a Brutus”. “The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in our stars but in ourselves. ”
7) Gloria ,in collaboration with Puno, will impose more draconian measures to intimidate the people in preparation for emergency rule (and martial law). This scenario will be considered if the cha cha move fails.
8)As usual ,Gloria will ignore the Senate.
9) Gloria will use the China card against the US if the Democrats win next year.
10)Gloria will have problems with the “activities” of Mike Arroyo (again).